It was 6 a.m., the time had just changed (spring forward an hour) a few days earlier and it was pitch-black outside. I ran to a nearby track and there was another runner using it. As a general rule, for safety reasons, I watch for cars and other people. As I ran on the track, I thought I knew the location of the other runner on the track, but I couldn’t see him. I quickly scanned the rest of the track and caught site of him further along than I had anticipated he would be. It surprised me; and prompted me to pay closer attention and anticipate. This feeling sparked a thought about scenario-building in the strategy process….

Scenario building, for example, is anticipating and creating a picture of at least three futures – the likely, best and worst case scenarios. You reduce the chance of being surprised and increasing your risk by investing in preparation for other scenarios as seriously as the likely scenario.

How would scenario building have impacted your business the last three years? The next three years?

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